Beiyang Dream

Chapter 47 I predicted your prediction, and you predicted mine.

September 5, 1890, 8:00 AM.

Prussian War Academy, Operations Room Number One.

Chang Desheng sat at the head of the long table, leaning against the hard oak chair.

Three men sat across the table—Mohammed Essad, Ali Bey, and Hassan Pasha. The three burly Turkish men were staring blankly at the map of the Korean Peninsula spread out on the table. The map had been hung up last night; its scale was 500,000:1, and the contour lines were so dense they made one's head spin.

Hindenburg sat to Chang Desheng's right. This man was as big as half an iron tower, with shoulders so broad they could support two door panels. At that moment, he was slowly stirring a cup of coffee, which looked as small as a toy in his hand.

"Gentlemen."

Hindenburg's voice was deep, sounding like distant, muffled thunder.

He put down his coffee cup and then picked up the document on the table, which was stamped with the college's wax seal. It was a "Deductive Scenario".

"Now, let's read out the scenario for the first phase of this war game exercise."

He cleared his throat and began to read:

"In the spring of 1894, a fierce conflict broke out between the pro-Japanese and pro-Qing factions in the Kingdom of Joseon due to their differing political views, which triggered a large-scale civil war in Seoul and the surrounding areas."

"King Gojong of Joseon sought assistance from Yuan Shikai, the Qing Dynasty's Minister in charge of trade and diplomatic affairs in Korea. At the same time, the Japanese ambassador to Korea also requested the dispatch of troops from Japan under the pretext of 'protecting overseas Chinese'."

On the same day, Li Hongzhang, the Minister of Beiyang of the Qing Dynasty, and Ito Hirobumi, the Prime Minister of Japan, approved the deployment of additional troops to Korea.

"The Japanese Army General Staff received orders: seize this opportunity to capture Korea and drive out the Qing army."

"Calculation start time: May 28, 1894, 6:00 AM."

"Blue Army (i.e., Japanese Army) mission: To achieve substantial control over the Korean Peninsula within one year."

After Hindenburg finished reading, he put the document back on the table, then looked up at Chang Desheng.

"Chang Xueyuan," he said, "as the commander-in-chief of the Blue Team, you have one hour to digest the scenario and three hours to submit the draft of the first phase of the operational plan."

After he finished speaking, he picked up his coffee cup again, blew on the foam floating on top, and took a small sip. His movements were slow and leisurely, without any hurry.

The room was quiet for a few seconds.

The three Turks exchanged glances. Muhammad spoke first, stroking his thick beard, his voice tinged with uncertainty: "Chang, this map… we need to study the terrain first. We know the Balkans well, but Korea…"

"There's no time."

Chang Desheng interrupted him.

He leaned forward, rested his elbows on the table, interlaced his fingers, and stared at the map of North Korea, his eyes narrowing.

"Teacher Mao's calculations are quite accurate," he thought to himself. "The First Sino-Japanese War broke out in the summer of 1994, so he was a month or two earlier... about right. It was also caused by internal strife, but he changed 'the Donghak Rebellion' to 'the conflict between pro-Japanese and pro-Qing factions.' It's all the same; it's just a pretext."

This is a massive project! It's many times larger than the civil engineering projects he participated in later in life. This is a true strategic simulation, gambling with the fate of the nation.

Moreover, this simulation will most likely come to fruition in a few years!

The project's capital consisted of seven active Japanese divisions, plus the combined fleet's limited resources.

Given the following conditions: Korea itself fell into chaos first, giving both Japan and Qing China a reason to send troops; Japan's goal was to annex Korea; Qing China's goal was to preserve its nominal suzerainty.

Start date: May 28th, early summer, the weather is fine, neither too hot nor too cold, it's a good time to fight.

There are a lot of risks: If the Qing army acts quickly, they may seize control of Seoul and that opportunistic king first; if the Beiyang Fleet gets the "Changyuan" warship, it may still be able to seize control of the Yellow Sea; will the Russian bear in the north take the opportunity to extend its claws over? And what about the local Korean yangban and civilians? Will they just lie down and accept their fate, or will they fight against the Japanese alongside the Qing army?

There were also opportunities: First, the element of surprise! The Qing Dynasty's bureaucratic machine, from Li Hongzhang to Yuan Shikai, and down to the military commanders, was slow to make decisions, like an ox pulling a broken cart. On the Japanese side, although they were fewer in number and didn't have the most guns, their training was rigorous, their organization strict, and their desire for victory intense. Their individual soldier quality and tactical skills absolutely surpassed those of the pampered Huai Army…

Chang Desheng raised his head and looked at the clock on the wall.

8:05.

"Lieutenant Colonel Hindenburg," he said, "I can dictate the first phase of the plan right now, without having to wait a few hours."

Hindenburg's coffee cup stopped in mid-air.

The three Turks turned to look at him.

"Now?" Muhammad said. "Chang, we haven't..."

Just listen to me.

Chang Desheng stood up, walked to the map, picked up a baton, and tapped it on the small black dot in Incheon.

"First," he said, "send troops to Seoul immediately, not slowly, but now, and quickly!"

His baton drew a line between Incheon and Seoul.

"From the 6th Division stationed in Kyushu, four of the most elite infantry battalions, one artillery battalion, and one engineer company were selected to form an advance detachment."

"Requisition all available merchant ships from Osaka Shosen Kaisha and Nippon Yusen Kaisha, and concentrate them at Ujina Port. The Navy will dispatch at least three cruisers for escort... no, wait..."

His baton swept along the west coast of North Korea, past the mouth of the Taedong River, and then turned left to Weihaiwei.

"The mission of the main cruisers of the navy is not escorting ships," he said, tapping the spot at Weihaiwei with his baton, "but to advance into the Yellow Sea to seek and seize an opportunity to engage in a decisive battle with the main force of the Beiyang Fleet."

"The escort mission can be handled by those older ships."

"Timeline..." Chang Desheng's speech quickened, as if reporting on construction progress, "Today, May 28th, the order was issued. On May 31st, the mixed brigade completed its assembly at Upin Port. On June 1st, they boarded the ships and departed. On June 3rd, they arrived in Incheon. On June 10th, they completed landing and launched a surprise attack on Seoul without declaration of war!"

After saying the last word, he turned around and looked at Hindenburg.

"At the same time," he added, "all divisions in the country—the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and Guards—are on full alert. The mobilization order will be issued today."

The room fell silent.

Hindenburg's coffee cup was still held in mid-air; he had forgotten to drink it.

The three Turks stared, mouths agape, looking at Changdesheng, then at the map, and finally at Hindenburg.

Mohammed Esaad was the first to react. He swallowed hard and said, "Chang, isn't this... a bit too fast? We haven't even analyzed the Qing army's possible deployments, calculated the logistical supply lines, or..."

"unnecessary."

Chang Desheng walked back to his seat, picked up a pencil, and quickly wrote on the notebook in front of him.

"The first phase has three objectives," he said as he wrote. "First, to launch a surprise attack and capture Seoul. This will be carried out by the 9th Mixed Brigade, with approximately 4,000 men, plus about 400 guards from the Japanese embassy in Seoul. It will be an undeclared war to ensure surprise."

"Second, control the Korean royal family. King Yi, Queen, and Crown Prince—not one can be missing. After control, immediately issue an edict in King Yi's name requesting Japan to 'suppress the rebellion in Korea' and abolish all treaties with Qing China."

"Third, the navy should take proactive action. The mission of the Combined Fleet is not escorting ships, but seizing control of the sea. As long as the main force of the Beiyang Fleet is destroyed, we will have won more than half of the land war in Korea."

After he finished writing, he pushed the notebook to the center of the table.

Hindenburg put down his coffee cup, picked up the paper, brought it close to his eyes, and looked at it for a full half minute.

Then he looked up at Chang Desheng, his blue eyes filled with disbelief.

"Your plan..." Hindenburg paused, seemingly searching for the right word, "is a bit too radical. To launch a surprise attack on another country's capital without a declaration of war, to kidnap the king... this is blatant aggression under international law. Moreover, the Qing army has 1,500 men in Seoul, and another 1,000 men in the Korean New Army. Your mixed brigade only has 4,000 men, plus the embassy guards, totaling 4,400. Your numerical superiority is not absolute."

Chang Desheng smiled.

"Major," his voice sounded very serious, "you're right, this is aggression. But what Japan wants is Korea. How else can it be taken?"

"As for troop strength..." He held up two fingers, "First, the Japanese army's training, organization, and firepower far surpass those of the Qing army. Four thousand four thousand against two thousand five thousand looks good on paper, but in a real battle, it would be one-sided."

"Secondly, the Qing army will not fight the Japanese army in Seoul."

Hindenburg frowned.

Why?

"Because the Qing army's chief of staff..." Chang Desheng raised his hand and pointed to the wall on the right—the other side of the wall was the No. 2 operations room, "...was Tojo Hidekichi."

He Sheng continued:

"Tojo knew the strengths of the Japanese army: speed, ruthlessness, and a desire for quick results. He also knew the weaknesses of the Qing army: slowness, disorganization, and a fear of protracted fighting."

"Therefore, he would never send his precious, limited, and poorly trained Qing troops to Seoul to fight me head-on. That would be like using his weakest point to attack my strongest point."

"He would do the math: Seoul cannot be held. If we try to hold it, we will surely lose! Once we lose, the morale of the army will collapse."

"So his optimal solution was to take the Korean king away before the Japanese army could act. To the north, to Pyongyang, or even further north to Uiju."

"Then, in the name of the king, he called on the eight provinces of Korea to 'resist the Japanese' and simultaneously implement a scorched-earth policy. This meant that every step our army took forward required a significant investment of time and bloodshed."

"His goal was not to 'hold Seoul,' but to 'drag the war into a war of attrition.' He would use the Korean winter, the long supply lines, and the superior manpower and resources of the Qing Dynasty to wear Japan down."

After Chang Desheng finished speaking, he looked at Hindenburg.

"Therefore, my plan must be fast. So fast that he won't have time to react, so fast that by the time he tries to retreat, my troops will already be at the gates of Seoul."

"As for international law..." He smiled, his face full of disdain, "Once the king's 'edict' comes out, it will be Korea's 'request' for Japan to send troops to quell the rebellion. We are not invading, we are 'invited'."

Hindenburg fell silent.

He stared at Chang Desheng for a full five seconds. Then he lowered his head and looked at the draft plan in his hand again.

Finally, he let out a long breath.

"Chang Xuesheng," he said, his voice lowering, "I have to ask, how did you arrive at these judgments in just five minutes? You didn't even look at any intelligence reports, didn't analyze the Qing army's possible deployments..."

Because that's how it's written in history books... If I hadn't "distorted" the history of the Jiawu year, the same thing would still have happened. Even if the Jiawu year was "distorted," it would just be a few days earlier or later.

This is the inevitable trend, and it will always be this way!

Chang Desheng thought to himself.

But what he said was: "Because... although the organization of our Beiyang Huai Army is backward, it is not without brains, much less blind or deaf."

Hindenburg remained silent for a few seconds, seemingly reassessing the Beiyang Army's intelligence capabilities and understanding of the Japanese army.

"I see."

Hindenburg looked up at the clock on the wall.

8:20.

Hindenburg picked up his pen and signed his name in the lower right corner of the draft plan.

"I will submit the draft plan to the judging panel. Now, please begin to refine the troop composition, logistical support, and communication arrangements for the first phase of the operation."

"Yes."

Chang Desheng took the paper.

He started calculating in his mind again.

This has exposed my military genius, and the Germans will definitely value me even more now, but they might try to sabotage me! I need to be careful these next few months, and even more careful on my way back home from Germany!

He sat back down in his chair, looked at the three Turks across from him who were still in a daze, and patted the table.

"Stop daydreaming," Chang Desheng said. "Muhammad, calculate the ammunition load for a mixed brigade. Thirty rounds per person, how many rounds for a battalion, how many rounds for a brigade, not counting artillery shells."

"Ali, plan the marching route from Incheon to Seoul. Mark out where to build bridges, where to repair roads, and where to set up ambushes."

"Hassan, provide a list of merchant ships that need to be requisitioned, along with their tonnage. How many ships does Osaka Shosen Kaisha (Osaka Merchant Marine) have, and how many does Nippon Yusen Kaisha (Nippon Yusen Kaisha) have? Are they enough tonnage? If not, requisition them from there."

After he finished speaking, he looked at the three of them.

The three of them were still stunned.

Chang Desheng slammed his hand on the table again, this time harder.

"Let's get to work!"

He said.

Muhammad was the first to react. He exclaimed "Oh!" and quickly grabbed a pencil. Ali and Hassan followed suit, the paper rustling and the pencil scratching as they wrote.

The only sounds in the room were writing, breathing, and the ticking of the clock on the wall.

Chang Desheng leaned back in his chair, a thought flashing through his mind:

What is Tojo doing right now?

Are you also sitting at a long table, staring at the diagrams and calculating the accounts?

Did you also predict that I would play this way?

He smiled and said, "Then come on... Let me see what you're capable of, so I can copy your skills!"