SWDnovel Chapter 76 Irving's Problem
Chapter 76 Irving's Problem
Chapter 76 Irving's Problem
Robert Stephenson and other engineers and businessmen from Britain arrived in the Han Dynasty with a large amount of machinery and equipment purchased with funds provided by British investors.
Once they had a general understanding of the social conditions before the Han Dynasty and figured out the true attitude of the Han emperor, they realized that they had fallen into a huge pit.
Now that the Emperor of Han is willing to lend a helping hand, he should naturally seize the opportunity.
So everyone, like Stephenson, decided to accept Liu Yulong's arrangement and clean up the assets they had brought back to recoup their losses.
They have no other choice now.
The equipment they brought to Great Han was originally produced specifically for the Great Han market; there was no corresponding demand in Britain itself.
Even if they were forcibly transported back to Britain, they would only end up being scrapped.
Furthermore, most people already believe that an economic crisis even more severe than ten years ago has already erupted, and returning to Britain now would not yield any good results.
Then we'll have to stay in the Han Dynasty for the time being.
He would wait and live in Great Han for a few years, thoroughly investigate the market situation in Britain, and then decide whether to return to run his business.
As for ordinary merchants, inventors seeking investment, and scholars seeking knowledge exchange in the delegations from the three kingdoms, as long as they did not come with large amounts of equipment for investment and purchase, the Imperial Academy of Natural Sciences and the Court of State Ceremonial would arrange for personnel to make individual and specific contacts with them.
The Institute of Gewu will decide, based on their circumstances and the actual situation of the Han Dynasty, whether to buy their inventions, whether to allow them to conduct the pre-arranged transactions, and whether to allow them to learn the knowledge they wish to acquire.
Of course, if Liu Yulong is interested in something, he will also meet with some inventors and scholars separately.
Whether these people cooperate or not, it has no significant impact on either side, so it's not a major issue and doesn't require the emperor to make special arrangements.
Today's meeting should have ended there.
But after a brief exchange with Liu Yulong, Robert Irving seemed to gain some new insights and speculations.
After Stephenson returned to his position, Irving stood up and bowed to Liu Yulong, saying, "Your Majesty, may I have a moment to ask you some questions?"
Liu Yulong had a good impression of Irving, so he casually replied, "Please go ahead, Mr. Irving."
Irving quickly gathered his thoughts: "Your Majesty seems very familiar with the situation in Britain. Does Your Majesty know of any feasible solutions to the problem of cyclical market crashes?"
When Irving asked this question, everyone in the room was very interested.
Engineers and investors want to avoid investment traps, and politicians don't want the market to crash and slump regularly.
However, most people don't have much expectation.
There are countless investors and an unknown amount of capital freely flowing through the British market.
How can there be a solution to this chaotic situation?
At the same time, many people feel that this is not a problem and does not need to be specifically addressed.
The early and middle 19th century in Britain was the era when Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" was all the rage.
Most politicians and businesspeople firmly believe in the free market and the "invisible hand."
They were committed to limiting the power of the king and the government, allowing the market to operate as freely as possible without interference.
Let the free market solve all the problems automatically.
After investment failures and competitive setbacks, companies will naturally be weeded out by the market, and the market will continue to remain vibrant.
This can be considered an adjustment made by the invisible hand.
Although it may be harsh on individuals, it aligns with the economic theories they are now accustomed to.
Liu Yulong was naturally aware of these things, so he casually remarked, "According to the prevailing economic views in Britain, this situation should be considered normal, right?"
"Although chaos itself cannot be controlled, the timing of the emergence of a chaotic state is actually regular."
"Currently, it appears that a cycle is about ten years, and the next one may be between 1845 and 1848 in the Gregorian calendar."
"As Mr. Owen said, the next crisis will be more severe and may affect the whole of Europe."
"For you personally, if you anticipate the crisis and prepare accordingly, you will be able to overcome it."
"Then you can not only avoid losses, but even expand your business during the crisis."
"This is my solution for you individuals."
Liu Yulong does not want to help Europe solve its economic crisis.
It also lacks the capacity to help Europe resolve its economic crisis, as well as the large-scale political crisis that the economy could trigger.
This crisis has likely already begun, and a crisis ten years from now is almost inevitable.
It should be traced back to the Irish Famine of 1845, with the crisis and revolution spreading in quick succession.
Revolutionary movements broke out in most countries and regions of Europe in succession over two or three years, reaching their climax in 1848.
The most obvious manifestation of this was the destruction of the Franz Orléans dynasty.
France once again became a republic, but it was soon replaced by the Second Empire of Napoleon III.
Unless the Han Dynasty directly rules Europe, these major problems cannot be solved at all, and cannot even be alleviated.
The Han Dynasty should make plans in advance and take advantage of the chaos in Europe to rapidly expand its sphere of influence.
Some people nodded slightly in agreement with Liu Yulong's answer, feeling that it was indeed the right thing to do.
Scientific research is about discovering, summarizing, and utilizing patterns.
Economic laws are laws, and it is perfectly reasonable to make money by leveraging these laws.
If the ten-year crisis cycle is real, then one should lie low and accumulate wealth during the frenzy before the crisis arrives.
Once the crisis has fully erupted, they will acquire a large number of assets at very low prices.
Many people have even begun to instinctively plan to accumulate their own wealth over the next ten years, so that they can buy at the bottom and turn their fortunes around during the next crisis ten years from now.
However, some people also felt regret and confusion, vaguely feeling that things shouldn't be so simple.
We shouldn't just accept this reality.
Especially Irving, who stood up to raise the question, his original purpose was to control and resolve the economic crisis, not to make money from it!
So Owen almost immediately and instinctively continued to ask: "Your Majesty, if we set aside the existing economic theories of Europe and judge according to the ideas of the Great Han Dynasty..."
"Shouldn't the periodic collapse of the British market be considered normal?"
"According to the Han Dynasty's ideology, is there a way to control and resolve this situation?"
The people at the scene perked up again, eager to know the big man's attitude.
After a moment's thought, Liu Yulong simply gave a direction: "According to the Han Dynasty's concept, your current state is certainly abnormal, but it is also very easy to solve."
"Since the investment market is chaotic, the way to control it is to establish order."
"Integrate resources, establish rules, and formulate plans."
"Invest materials, manpower, and funds according to actual needs, rather than rushing in all at once."
"Establish and implement regulatory measures to punish operators who violate regulations."
"Large-scale infrastructure and industrial and mining industries, such as mines, railways, docks, shipyards, etc., should be directly managed by the imperial court, concentrating national resources on their development and construction to avoid illegal and chaotic operations by private entities."
Upon hearing this so-called simple answer, most of the British and Americans present were speechless, unsure how to respond.
The solution is indeed simple: to establish order in a chaotic market.
This should prevent cyclical market crashes, but the question is, how can this be achieved?
Who can make all the British investors obediently listen to and carefully investigate the actual needs before investing?
How to provide the right investment in the right way, within the right time frame, and in the right scope?
What exactly constitutes a suitable approach? And who should be responsible for implementing the investment?
How should we make all these countless decisions?
For Britain and the United States, the traditional method of coordination was to establish guilds.
In Britain and the United States, there are guilds in every industry.
The parliamentary parties in both countries represent various industries and trade associations.
The parliaments of both countries can be viewed as an alliance of associations across the entire industry.
However, the parliament was clearly incapable of fulfilling what the Han emperor had said.
Unless a strong and large government is established to strictly manage and supervise all sectors.
Private capital is prohibited from investing freely; it is only permitted to invest within a specified time period and within a specific scope designated by the government.
The key is that the government must step in to control basic industries and infrastructure.
If these things can be done, then periodic market crashes and recessions should indeed be possible.
But by then the market itself would almost cease to exist.
This approach goes completely against the mainstream thinking of the British and American business communities at present.
Therefore, it is simply impossible to achieve.
Based on this, Irving also thought of the newly organized British Trade Union Confederation.
However, Irving felt that the union alliance was also unable to solve this problem.
Britain can only resolve these cyclical market crashes by fully implementing public ownership.
But to achieve full public ownership—that's practically a pipe dream—
This goal can only be achieved by changing the mindset of the next generation through education.
As for France's representatives, they had not yet experienced a full-blown economic crisis like that of the United States or Britain.
However, they had a general understanding of the situation in Britain.
Listening to Liu Yulong and Owen's explanation of the economic crisis, as well as their prediction that another economic crisis might occur ten years later, and more importantly, that it might spread throughout Europe, they all felt a little worried.
Most of the Francois felt that there was no problem with the solution proposed by Liu Yulong.
French Prime Minister Victor de Broglie pondered for a moment, glancing subconsciously at Prince Charles Philippe, who represented the royal family, and muttered to himself, "France needs a strong monarch and a powerful government to avoid these troubles."
"The current Orleans dynasty is too weak."
"It was itself a compromise between the Bourbon royalists, Bonapartists, and republicans."
Maintaining a basic balance in all aspects is already a struggle —
"If the crisis really reaches France ten years from now, the Orleans dynasty will probably be unable to survive."
Liu Yulong spoke these words so openly to the Americans, French, and British, knowing that even if they understood, it would be useless.
These are typical practices of the Han Dynasty, not those of Europe.
The prevailing mindset of a society determines a country's political and economic policies.
Before encountering a major setback or revolution, and before the entire society's way of thinking undergoes a radical change, it is simply impossible to make disruptive decisions.
Even if politicians and thinkers propose it, there is no way to implement it quickly.
At best, education and public opinion campaigns can be used to slowly drive changes in societal thinking, but such changes take a very long time.
The political systems of Britain and the United States make it difficult for them to maintain fixed, specific policies for long periods of time.
In particular, policies that will not yield any visible benefits.
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